Archive for May, 2010

Results of Model Stock Portfolio

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

In a blog on March 13th, I mentioned several stocks that I personally believe would benefit from the coming inflation.  If one took these stocks and invested approximately $1,000 in each on March 15th and sold yesterday you would have made over 10%+ in 50 days:

3/13/2010 5/3/2010 Shares 3/13 Purchase 5/3 Value
GG 39.09 42.70 25    977.25 1,067.50
SVM 6.53 8.46 150    979.50 1,269.00
MFN 10.15 9.89 100 1,015.00    989.00
UXG 2.91 3.63 350 1,018.50 1,270.50
MVG 7.36 7.63 130    956.80    991.90
4,947.05 5,587.90
Appreciation in value:  640.85

MFN was down but I continue to believe in this stock.  UXG and SVM were obviously the highlights of the group.  This is a good example why you want to spread risks over multiple stocks.  There are no guarantees of performance.

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The Quiet Bailout: Bank Closures

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

I am always amazed at the cavalier attitude of regulators who are public servants.  when Penn Square Bank was closed in the 1980’s, I knew a lady who had a Certificate of Deposit (CD) in the amount of $240,000 with the bank.  The bank was seized by the FDIC on Friday.  On Monday, she stood in line with other depositors and waited for her money.  That day she was handed a check from the FDIC for $100,000 and told that she would receive some portion of the remainder in the future.  Finally, she received about $30,000 having a loss of $110,000.  That money was hard earned, saved money for it was going to be her retirement.  She learned a valuable lesson- don’t assume that the government is going to fully protect your money.

Senior Bank Officers and Directors knew the bank was failing yet they failed their fiduciary capacity to protect depositors.  If you or I did this, we would be residing in an orange jumpsuit now.  The regulators also knew of the impending failure.  They create confidential “watch lists” to monitor these banks losing money.  Fraud is intentional deception resulting in injury to another person.

For the week ending April 30th:

This week’s losses were notable They were the largest in any single week since the failure of IndyMac Bank on July 11, 2008.  IndyMac had assets of about $32 billion and deposits of $19 billion. Its failure cost the FDIC an estimated $8 billion.

The seven banks that failed this week had combined assets of about $25.8 billion and deposits of $19.6 billion. These failures cost the FDIC an estimated $7.33 billion. Prior to this week, the FDIC’s estimated losses from 57 bank failures in 2010 stood at about $8.6 billion. This week’s failures practically doubled that figure, to $15.93 billion.

According to an AP article, the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund “fell into the red last year, hitting a $20.9 billion deficit as of [Dec. 31, 2009].” With this year’s losses, the fund’s deficit has grown to at least $36.8 billion. In addition, the FDIC has a huge exposure for worse-than-expected losses on some $165 billion of assets taken over by acquiring banks. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Banks-closed-in-Puerto-Rico-apf-1507617949.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode

That wipes out the $45 billion the FDIC announced it was going to raise by requiring banks to pre-pay premiums for the period, 2010 through 2012. Obligations of the FDIC will soon become obligations of the U.S. taxpayer, adding further to the federal deficits.

FASB Valuations

Each of the FDIC’s press releases provides vital information about the true market value of the failed banks’ assets versus the values assigned them by bank management. This gives some insight into the extent of over-valuations across the banking sector in the wake of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) having suspended fair value accounting rules last year.  The FASB’s compromise in the area of valuations has given bank management far too much leeway to value assets at levels far beyond what they could fetch in the open market, resulting in banks’ balance sheets becoming increasingly less reliable indicators of their true financial health.

Bank Closure Details:

Westernbank Puerto Rico of Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, had stated assets of $11.94 billion and deposits of $8.62 billion. On paper, it was an extremely healthy bank; yet the FDIC’s loss estimate for its closure is $3.31 billion. Based on that estimate, the real market value of its assets is only $5.31 billion. Bank management had over-valued these assets by 125%.

R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico of Hato Rey, Puerto Rico, had stated assets of $5.92 billion and deposits of $4.25 billion. The FDIC’s loss estimate for its closure is $1.23 billion. Based on that estimate, the real market value of its assets is $3.02 billion, and had been over-valued by 96%.

Frontier Bank of Everett, WA, had stated assets of $3.5 billion and deposits of $3.13 billion. Its loss estimate is $1.37 billion. Based on that estimate, its assets are really worth $1.76 billion, and had been over-valued by 99%.

Eurobank of San Juan, Puerto Rico had stated assets of $2.56 billion and deposits of $1.97 billion. Its loss estimate is $744 million. Based on that estimate, its assets are really worth $1.226 billion, and had been over-valued by 109%.

CF Bankcorp of Port Huron, MI, had stated assets of $1.65 billion and deposits of $1.43 billion. Its loss estimate is $615 million. Based on that estimate, its assets are really worth $815 million, and had been over-valued by 102%.

These bank failures are being reported free of any allegations of fraud or even negligence on the part of bank management. Absent any such allegations, it stands to reason that these over-valuations, ranging from 96% to 125%, are considered to be in line with reasonable accounting practices sanctioned by the FASB at the time it suspended fair value requirements.

Do you think that this is an isolated practice among these banks?  Be vigilant!  It looks like they’ll be cutting down a forest to supply enough money to cover all of the losses.  Oh, by the way, there are banks being closed every week.

The Miracle of Paradox

Sunday, May 2nd, 2010

Human logic has problems with a paradox- a statement that appears to contradict itself.  Our Heavenly Father makes us aware of the fallacy of human logic and the ego by notable use paradoxes:

Judge not and you shall not be judged.  Each benefit is preceded by our willingness to Love.  Yes, there is plenty of opportunity to judge others because of all the self-interested actions that overwhelm us daily.  Unrighteousness abounds.  Our ego would dictate that we be judge and jury over all the injustice we are exposed to and “wack ‘em”.  It is difficult for our minds to comprehend that people simply operate based on their revelation, or lack of it.  Do you think there would be all of this corruption if they had the full revelation of Our Heavenly Father?

Condemn not and you shall not be condemned.  Being critical of others is a close cousin of judgment.  Criticism is a disapproval expressed by pointing out faults or shortcomings  That is a subtle trait of the ego.  It looks for the “bad” rather than focusing on the “good”.

Forgive and you shall be forgiven.  There are two types of people: those that need forgiveness, and those that WILL need forgiveness.  Jesus said “But if ye do not forgive, neither will your Father which is in heaven forgive your trespasses.”  Do you really think you can live a perfect life and have nothing that needs forgiveness?  Our ego says “yes”, but our actions scream a resounding “NO”.  What a simple thing to do to insure our future with Our Heavenly Father!

Give and you will receive.  Most people focus on their needs and thus want to receive.  However, if you give with the right motive (Love), you set yourself up to receive blessings from Heaven.  Most people used this Scripture to give to get.  The Faith Movement utilized with Scripture to an excess.  Give an airplane to get a bigger airplane.  Those who “get” in order to give use the principle of Love and are honored by Our Heavenly Father for HE knows the thoughts and intents of our hearts.

Luke 6:37   Judge not, and ye shall not be judged: condemn not, and ye shall not be condemned: forgive, and ye shall be forgive,

Luke 6:38   Give, and it shall be given unto you; good measure, pressed down, and shaken together, and running over, shall men give into your bosom. For with the same measure that ye mete withal it shall be measured to you again.  KJV

Jesus surrendered on the Cross to conquer death.  Love defies logic and as we are led by THE SPIRIT, we will do things that defy logic but open up the storehouses of Heaven to meet our needs and desires.  What an exciting journey!

Another “Black Swan” Event?

Sunday, May 2nd, 2010

On April 19th, Oklahoma City honored the victims of the Murrah Bombing which occurred fifteen years ago.  This tragedy rallied the people of America and brought forth a unifying affect across the country.  Pearl Harbor and the World Trade Center disasters had the same effect.  In those cases, the country went to war and brought forth a requirement of personal sacrifice.  According to the Washington Post, 5,425 military personnel have died in the current wars in the Middle East.  37,467 soldiers have been wounded in action as of this week.  After all of this along with $990,000,000,000 expended on the two war fronts, Osama Bin Laden is still out there.  See: http://www.costofwar.com/

Another 7 banks were closed by the FDIC on Friday with an estimated cost of $7.33 Billion, an optimistic number (you better double it).  33 states are on the verge of bankruptcy and the largest U.S. investment bank is being investigated for criminal intent.  Although the media is not acknowledging the ground swell of discontent, there are many voters who are staging demonstrations against the current direction of government.

What do the think tanks think?  There is already talk of a valued-added tax (VAT).  I was first exposed to VAT during my first trip to England in the 1980’s.  I bought a souvenir and the tax added about 25% to the price.  What???  I felt that I was bamboozled.  How can you get Americans to agree to a VAT?  It sounds like we need a “Black Swan” event to take our minds off the dismal economic picture.  A catastrophic event would bring out our compassion for our fellow man and while we are focused on the human suffering and healing/recovery, a VAT could get passed at midnight on a Sunday night while we’re all in Church.  Am I a conspiracy theorist?  No, I just read and study history and understand man’s failed state when he operates in self-interest.  Greed causes men to rationalize their actions for the “greater good” which always includes them at the top of the ‘greater good” recipient list.  We have been consistently warned in the news media of the potential for another terrorist attack on U.S. soil.  However, each of us must trust Our Heavenly Father to protect us from the ways of man.

The only solution to all of the muck and mire is Love.  Hope by itself will not get us there.  Faith without Love isn’t enough either.  Love eliminates the self-interest motivation and moves the focus to helping others.  It converts our enemies to friends, it reconciles separation!  When Love is backed by the power of the Most Holy Spirit, nations change.  This must be our prayer.

Below is an example of the discontent among the citizenry: