Recent record oil prices would suggest that we revisit the primary driver of high prices. Throughout our lives there has always been an abundance of oil. When Jed Clampett shot his rifle and discovered oil on the show "Beverly Hillbillies", the view of oil was one of abundance. Oil discoveries enhanced economic development of the western world for the last 150 years. The energy contained in one barrel of oil far surpasses earlier fuel sources. The automobile propelled expansion of goods and services throughout the U.S. That was then.
As I have shared in previous writings, major oil fields (called elephant fields) are in decline.
Conventional world oil production peaked in May of 2005. The producing nations have been unable to sustain production of existing fields as well as replace depleting wells with new discoveries. In 1956 Dr. M. King Hubbert, Geophysicist, predicted peak oil in the U.S. to occur between 1965 and 1970. He was right! Further, in 1975,he predicted world peak production in 1995 "if current trends continue". Others have studied peak oil and have given their own prediction as shown by the graph below:
(click on Image to enlarge)
As of this writing, it appears that May of 2005 may be acknowledged as the peak a few years from now. There are many opinions about when oil will peak. I prefer to give credence to the technical views rather than the politically motivated (or funded) views. Matthew Simmons, an investment banker, conducted a field by field research study based on technical papers provided by engineers around the world. He concluded that peak oil was upon us. In his book Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Simmons provides a rather complete analysis of the major fields (elephant fields) and statistically shows that world production is peaking.
Robert Hirsch and associates conducted a study for the U.S. Department of Energy. The study was published in February of 2005. The following are the conclusions of the Hirsch Report:
- World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
- Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
- Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”).
- The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from transportation sector).
- Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
- 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
- A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
- Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.
- Both supply and demand will require attention.
- It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak).
- Government intervention will be required.
- Economic upheaval is not inevitable (“given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.”)
- More information is needed to more precisely determine the peak timeframe.
The current supply problem was not unanticipated. Short-term thinking by the U.S. leadership placed the American people in this serious economic challenge. Cheap energy has been the economic assumption of the entire American population. This population has also been the economic engine of the globe. The shift away from cheap energy thinking will be difficult, impossible for some. The movie "Giant" was about a west Texas rancher who fought the oil and gas paradigm, first in denial then in anger. How long will the American people live in denial and anger? The world is moving away from the "American-centric" thinking. How long will it take? It is moving much faster up the exponential curve now.
There is unlimited free energy. Scientists have not been able to unlock the energy potential in cold fusion and other technologies. I believe that the world is at a crossroads. "Control" has prevailed in the recent past. Our Heavenly Father is well aware of our energy situation. It would appear that a day of judgment and repentance is coming. Repentance is "turning away" from your present course. The revelation associated with free energy will be withheld until that day of repentance is at hand. Once we repent and once again seek The Father and His Love, I believe the Tabernacles period will be in full view for all to see. At that time we will not be held captive by those who control the resources but will appreciate what "rest" really means!